Bitcoin’s Volatility Index Drops to 16-Month Low, Hinting a Big Move Is Coming

Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, has been trading within a tight range over the last few weeks, as it has been failing to surpass the $10,000 mark, while support at $9,000 kept it above that level.

CryptoCompare data shows that bitcoin’s price entered the range in May after recovering from a market sell-off that saw its price drop by nearly 50% in only 24 hours, on the so-called Crypto Black Thursday. Bitcoin has been trading within this range since.

This range has seen its 30-day volatility index drop to a 15-month low at 1.9%, a level that hasn’t been since March 2019 when the index dropped to a 1.25% low. The flagship cryptocurrency’s 30-day index hit 11.05% during the market crash, which occurred during a wider sell-off in equities markets.

Source: Bitpremier

Notably, bitcoin’s price was trading close to the $4,000 mark back in March 2019, when its volatility was rather low. Over the next few months, BTC’s price and volatility both started rising. As the price of bitcoin hit a $13,000 high in July, its 30-day volatility index moved up to 6.94%.

Source: CryptoCompare

 Some analysts are now expecting the price of the flagship cryptocurrency to make a significant move once again, but BTC may not see a bullish rally in the near future as well. Zooming out we see bitcoin’s 30-day volatility index also dropped below 1.5% in November 2018. The low volatility preceded a price drop from over $6,000 to a $3,200 low in December 2018.

Source: CryptoCompare

After hitting the $3,200 low the price of bitcoin started recovering from the year-long bear market it endured in 2018. Back in October 2018 CryptoGlobe reported on BTC’s low 30-day volatility index, and back then prominent market analyst Willy Woo correctly argued BTC was still in a bear market.

Recently on Twitter, the analyst claimed BTC was “setting up for a bullish run until the COVID white swan killed the party,” before adding the model suggests “we are close to another bullish run.”

This is a new model I’m working on, it picks the start of exponential bull runs.

1) Bitcoin was setting up for a bullish run until the COVID white swan killed the party.

2) This model suggests we are close to another bullish run. Maybe another month to go. pic.twitter.com/wmoEdMVywF

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) June 27, 2020

Featured image by Austin Distel on Unsplash.