The chief investment officer of cryptocurrency hedge fund Arcane Assets, Eric Wall, has offered a $1 million bet against the popular bitcoin stock-to-flow model, which has predicted the price of BTC could go as high as $288,000 by 2024.
On Twitter, Wall told his over 32,000 followers he is offering to pay $1 million to anyone who accepts to bet with him that the stock-to-flow model will be “broken less than 5 years from now.” He added the funds would be locked with a trusted third party.
Wall defined the model being “broken” as not reaching “even 50% of its target range.”
The S2F model, it’s worth noting, predicts the price of BTC could hit $100,000 by the end of next year. While Wall tagged the analyst behind the model, PlanB, he later added the bet is open for anyone who is willing to lock up the funds.
PlanB’s model relies on BTC’s finite supply. The model uses stock as the “size of the existing stockpiles or reserves” and flow as “the yearly production,” and has so far been correct according to the analyst. Some in the cryptocurrency community, however, disagree with its price prediction.
Ari Paul, CIO at BlockTower Capital, joined in on the bet saying he will offer the same bet as Eric with 3:1 odds in the favor of whoever takes it, meaning that whoever bets $1 million with him could stand to win $3 million.
Paul added that to him, entering the bet is logical even without thinking about the accuracy of the stock-to-flow model, as it’s “a simple arbitrage.”
Responding to a user questioning if he would still win the bet if the model is broken in favor of BTC’s price – if the price of BTC outperformed the prediction – Wall said he would be “okay with losing in that case,” as it would mean BTC’s price went parabolic.
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